POLL: Should The Bolts Trade Up For Tua?

[PR#1]

interesting...... Lawrence has more potential than Burrow, Elway, Marino, manning, Rivers, Luck......etc??????? Lawrence is no where close.......

Lawrence is a pure RPO running QB with a strong but not consistently accurate arm...... he won a bowl game by primarily running the ball not passing it..... How do you explain when LSU stopped him from running and forced him to actually pass the ball in the national championship game????? lawrence couldn't because he is not a great PASSER....and PASSING is the reason you have a QB........

Burrow and Tua(if healthy) are elite passers and far superior to Lawrence.......as passers and that is what is important.....

I agree that Hebert and Love are far far below Burrow and Tua in terms of consistency and should not be drafted in top 6 picks but unfortunately, because of the QB shortage, and how many teams desperately need one, they all get drafted higher than they maybe should be..... if Tua and Burrow are gone, and the Chargers believe in Hebert or Love, they cannot wait till 2nd round to take them..... the Chargers will have to take them at 6...... if we dont they will be taken by CAR, JAX, OAK, NE, TB.....or others......

Lawrence is only 20 years old. Much higher upside then burrow.

Previous poster is correct. If Lawrence was eligible to come out this draft (he's ineligible because of age), he would be the number 1 pick over Burrow.

He's just trying to take a controversial stance to erase his previous errant prediction about Mahomes.

But, hey....why bury yourself 6 feet under when there's perfectly good dirt underneath your coffin?

So, if I had predicted last November that Justin Verlander would have 3 wins by the end of April of 2020, would you now be calling me out for making what is sure to be a wrong prediction or would you be able to understand that factors external (injury, coronavirus) to those considered were huge factors in altering the overall results? Just curious.

That question seems kind of applicable since my prediction that Mahomes in 2018 would not have a higher QB rating than Smith did in 2017 was predicated on my analysis of two of the 4 QB rating criteria--completion percentage and INT percentage. I stated that I expected Mahomes' QB rating to be lower because I expected his completion percentage to be lower and his INT rate to be higher. I even went so far as to say that Mahomes would have at least double the INTs that Smith had in 2017.

As it turns out, I was 100% correct regarding the completion percentage and the INTs, including the prediction that Mahomes would throw at least twice as many INTs as Smith did in 2017. I was right as far as my specific individual statistical category predictions went. You get that, don't you?

But the overall prediction failed due to several factors external to my analysis. Reid changed up the offense and really caught the league off guard the first time through. Good teams (Chargers, Patriots) were much more effective against it the second time through. Yes, I did not anticipate that and neither did any NFL opponent.

Also, Mahomes had a statistically improbable TD pass percentage. Early in the season in particular, every or virtually every offensive scoring TD was a passing TD. It was like flipping 12 quarters and seeing them all come up tails. That was just nothing more than a fluke and anyone can see that when, in 2019, even with a high TD pass percentage, Mahomes only posted a figure that was 62.7% of the one-off ridiulously high figure he posted in 2018.

And then there were also additional new rules that had the effect of helping offenses.

So, the analysis was correct, but the final result was, I fully admit, wrong because there were factors involved that nobody could have anticipated when the prediction was made and other factors that were very obviously of a one-off flukish nature.

This is actually getting so absurd it's funny. Why does someone have the burden of proof on an opinion? And how exactly does one do this when you simply reject anything contrary to your opinion?

Okay, so you reject my opinion, you reject PFF, how about Daniel Jeremiah, a guy who scouted for 3 different teams and knows QBs? Here are a few of his comments on Burrows:



Note the bolded part:


Since you obsess over his 2018 vs 2019 numbers:



I'm sure you'll write him off as a hack too.

You stated that "the numbers do not back up my assertion". That is a factual assertion that you made, but that you did not prove. Instead, you then cited PFF in support of that view, which included an analysis that did not address Burrow's 2018 numbers, which was a big focus of my take; an analysis that failed to disclose its own methodology, data or formula; and did not even arrive at the conclusion that Burrow's 2019 season was all that historically great--third best in the past 6 seasons behind two QBs that have not flourished so far in the NFL.

As for Jeremiah's opinion, I like and respect Jeremiah, but pundits are comparing collegiate players to NFL players all the time. Just because a player has certain traits that resemble an NFL player does not mean that that player will perform at the same level as that NFL player. And even if there were somehow that potential, we are talking about the time period before the draft. So, when Brady had his particlular skillset that Burrow's is said to resemble, what was Brady's pre-draft player analysis? Where was he taken in the draft? He was taken in round 6 of the draft because he was perceived to have significant physical limitations.

My primary assertion is that Burrow is not worthy of the #1 overall draft slot and not even worthy of being taken at #6 overall, not that he should not be drafted at all. Comparing Burrow to a player taken in the 6th round because of his limitations does not dent my assertion at all. All along I have maintained that Burrow could work out as an NFL QB, but that his risk factors make him too much of a risk to select properly at #1 or even #6 overall. I have stated my view that his most likely career arc is that of a game manager type starting QB, not that he will be a complete bust.

In my view, Burrow is a better overall athlete when it comes to running and moving than Brady, but Burrow's arm strength and release are not as good as Brady's. Burrow's passes take longer to get there from the point of decision to the ball's arrival. I see significant differences and I do not think having an attitude will be as important as those differences are.

And I agree 100 percent with Jeremiah's take that LSU's system was better for Burrow in 2019 than in 2018. Having wide open receivers on many plays helps a lot. And having better players than your opponent helps a lot too. I really like Justin Jefferson in particular.

Regarding McVay's comments, of course, any NFL coach is always going to say positive things about players and other coaches. Every NFL coach tries to put his players in a position to succeed. But so do opposing coaches. Burrow will not have a huge advantage in team talent like he did in 2019. The windows will be smaller, so his above average vision and ability to pass acurately will help help him, but his lack of arm strenth and average release will hurt him when it comes to smaller window throws, deep outs, et cetera.

In another thread, I think I actually counted the QBs that were drafted #1 overall this century and came up with something like 14 of them. Not one of those QBs has lived up to the hype that made that QB the #1 overall draft pick. And believe me, every one of those players was talked up as being the greatest thing since sliced bread, similar to how Burrow has been talked up this year. So, until next year, I will remain pretty comfortable in the knowledge that the odds seem to be with me.

[AK47]

If TT wants a QB via Draft then:

See if Tua drops to us at #6. If so you draft him. Plain and simple.

or

If another team calls us to make us a deal...a really sweet deal for our #6 pick with Tua still there, Take it!! You still have a slight chance he drops. If Tua is gone then go grab Herbert before he's gone. The trifecta would be to trade down, get more picks, and still draft Tua/Herbert.

[richpjr]

Again, your take is incorrect. First, you are asserting something. You have the burden of proving that thing. Saying "PFF said so" proves nothing. Also, in regard to the total quality of Burrow's 2019 season, PFF itself does not even rank it as the best season by a collegiate QB in the past 6 seasons even with its questionable findings that conflict with what a lot of people saw (wide open receivers everywhere on most plays).

Further, I challenge Burrow's so-called elite accuracy as well. In 2018, he completed just 57.8% of his passes. I am not buying a nearly 20% increase in his completion percentage as being that he just suddenly got that much better. Wide open receivers and playing for a team vastly superior to other teams made a huge difference. He will not have that benefit in the NFL--none of it.

Moreover, Burrow's physical limitations concerning his arm talent are obvious. Maybe he can overcome those limitations in the right system, but to suggest that he is some sort of special dynamic game changing force is, frankly, laughable. Almost every year this century a QB gets hyped as a dynamic game changing force. This century, not one of those #1 overall QBs has lived up to that billing. Burrow will likely continue that trend.

I suspect the real Burrow will be a competent game manager type QB. He will be fine if he is not asked to do too much. He will not be a historically great player.

Honestly, I am delighted that teams like the Bungles are willing to look past players like Chase Young and Isaiah Simmons and draft players like Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. It gives us a chance that Simmons will be on the board at #6. And if Simmons is on the board at #6, it had better not take our front office more than 20 seconds to turn in the draft card selecting him.

This is actually getting so absurd it's funny. Why does someone have the burden of proof on an opinion? And how exactly does one do this when you simply reject anything contrary to your opinion?

Okay, so you reject my opinion, you reject PFF, how about Daniel Jeremiah, a guy who scouted for 3 different teams and knows QBs? Here are a few of his comments on Burrows:

The tape is the tape is the tape. ... Now, when you ask for comparisons and, trust me, I know I'm gonna get it for this. But when you watch these guys side by side - Tom Brady, mechanically, watch what you see from Brady, and tell me this does not look identically the same from Joe Burrow. It is eerie. ... The poise, the pocket awareness, and they both absolutely have that swagger. Kevin Faulk's on that staff at LSU. As the scouts have come rolling through there, and they ask, 'Kevin, you've been in the NFL a long time, what do you think of this Burrow kid?' He goes, 'I'm telling you. This is Tom Brady. This kid reminds me so much of Tom Brady.' And I understand that's the greatest of all time, and I know comparisons get people all upset. But when you watch them mechanically and you're around their personalities, their leadership style - there are a lot of similarities.

Note the bolded part:

There's an edge. ... This guy sees everything, he's accurate, he can make quick decisions. And the numbers just took off. They put the offense in place that fits his skillset. And I had a chance to talk with (Los Angeles Rams head coach) Sean McVay - who obviously knows Zac Taylor well with the Cincinnati Bengals - I said, 'You've watched Joe. How does his skillset translate scheme-wise with what they do in Cincinnati?' He said, 'Perfect. Absolutely perfect match.'

Since you obsess over his 2018 vs 2019 numbers:

Jeremiah compared LSU's scheme in 2019 favorably to 2018, which saw the Tigers often max protect Burrow with seven players. That limited his ability to scan the field and find open targets.

"Burrow, his greatest gift, and you can see it this year when you watch him, is he has the vision to be able to take a snapshot of the entire field, to see everything, to process, and to throw accurately," Jeremiah said.

"Well, when you're in seven-man protection and you limit the number of guys that can get out on a route, you're limiting the answers you can give somebody. He was handicapped by them trying to mass protect him. There's no room for him to use his athletic ability to take off and go if you want. There's no room for him to slide around, more around, find windows. It was just a congested brand of football."

The numbers speak for themselves. Burrow threw for 2,894 yards and 16 touchdowns against five interceptions in 2018. In 2019, those numbers ascended to 5,671 yards and an NCAA-record 60 touchdowns against six interceptions. Burrow ran away with the Heisman Trophy, receiving a record 90.7 percent of the first-place votes, and led LSU to a national championship.

I'm sure you'll write him off as a hack too.

[SuperCharged]

I disagree with your take pretty much across the board.

Your take on Lawrence is laughable. His passing stats, including completion percentage, as a true freshman and true sophomore are better than those put up by Mahomes as a sophomore and junior, leading up to Mahomes entering the NFL draft. This, of course, is in addition to Lawrence being a better, more gifted runner and having a stronger, more accurate arm than Mahomes. Are you beginning to understand the potential just a little?

The reality is that Lawrence would have been the #1 pick over Murray in last year's draft. He would be the #1 pick over Burrow, Tua and Herbert in this year's draft. And he will be the #1 pick in next year's draft.

You can cite Burrow's red herring red shirt senior season, but the red flag, red light reality is that when Burrow did not have the perfect system, a vastly more talented team, and constantly wide open receivers in his other seasons like he did in 2019, Joe Burrow was Joe Blow. And the problem is that Burrow will never have the advantages that he had last season at LSU in the NFL.

I think Burrrow could be good game manager type/efficient QB at the NFL level, but he is not going to be any sort of game changing dynamic force.

Lawrence has been accurate on a more consistent basis than Burrow. In his red shirt junior season, Burrow only managed to complete 57.8% of his passes. If he is so great, why did he suck? Why couldn't he beat out Haskins at Ohio State? Lawrence, on the other hand, has completed over 65% of his passes in both of his seasons at Clemson.

In the NFL, my expectation is that Tua will be an injury prone average NFL QB.

I see Herbert as being better than either Burrow or Tua, but Herbert has nowhere near the ability that Lawrence has.

As for where Lawrence ranks among all time prospects, I see Lawrence as more talented than Elway. Marino was always seen as a great passer (and he ended up being much better than Elway), but Elway was the greater prospect entering the draft. Luck was not as much of a prospect entering the draft as Elway was, though he was always the clear #1 overall pick in the year he entered the draft.

Rivers is my favorite player, but it is okay for me to admit that even though he is a great passer, Rivers does not have anywhere near the arm talent or athleticism that Lawrence has.

As for what other teams will do, I think somebody will take Herbert before pick #37. Love could last longer. Carolina just agreed with Bridgewater at over $20M per season over 3 seasons, so they likely will not be taking a QB. Carr is underrated. I doubt Oakland will draft a QB as they already have a pretty good one. I would rather have Carr than either Burrow or Tua. It is a close call with Herbert. Brady wants to play multiple additional seasons so now that TB has TB12, TB may not be so quick to draft a QB.

Lawrence all day I would pay a pretty big price if needed to trade up if I were TT...... Tua = Tebow 2.0. Look at that release point. End of story.

[captaind]

Chaincrusher....rich has been on this board from the beginning....he is a diehard fan here. Show some choices in words that arent telling people they are wrong....you yourself are making best guesses based on stats. This is discussion. Its fine to disagree without sounding so hostile which i feel you are bordering on. I appreciate opinions and people making points...this is a friendly space brother.

He's just trying to take a controversial stance to erase his previous errant prediction about Mahomes.

But, hey....why bury yourself 6 feet under when there's perfectly good dirt underneath your coffin?

Chaincrusher....rich has been on this board from the beginning....he is a diehard fan here. Show some choices in words that arent telling people they are wrong....you yourself are making best guesses based on stats. This is discussion. Its fine to disagree without sounding so hostile which i feel you are bordering on. I appreciate opinions and people making points...this is a friendly space brother.

RTPbolt, I 100% agree that we are all Chargers fans and that we are all expressing our opinions here whether we agree or disagree. I definitely do not wish to be unfriendly or even to appear that way.

I do not agree with richpjr's opinion on the issue so I stated my belief that "your take is incorrect". That is my belief. My thinking was that that language was a pretty tame way of saying that.

However, to richpjr and to everyone else, what I said means nothing more than I disagree with his opinion on the issue. There is zero hostility at all and I certainly apologize if that was the impression created. To me, this discussion has been nothing more than two people discussing different sides of a football issue.

RTPbolt, thank you for bringing your view of the posts to my attention so that I could know that there was a concern.

[RTPbolt]

Chaincrusher....rich has been on this board from the beginning....he is a diehard fan here. Show some choices in words that arent telling people they are wrong....you yourself are making best guesses based on stats. This is discussion. Its fine to disagree without sounding so hostile which i feel you are bordering on. I appreciate opinions and people making points...this is a friendly space brother.

I copied only a part of that "worthless" analysis to make the point about your take that Burrows only completed a high number of passes this year because his receivers are running free. Just because PFF doesn't release what criteria they use doesn't mean it isn't true. My eye test tells me the same thing that their analysis does - he is extraordinarily accurate and can complete passes in a very tight window, which is crucial for success at the NFL level. Literally the only knock that I, along with just about everyone else who has watched him outside of you, is that his arm strength is not elite. I expect him to have much more success than you do. Time will tell.

Again, your take is incorrect. First, you are asserting something. You have the burden of proving that thing. Saying "PFF said so" proves nothing. Also, in regard to the total quality of Burrow's 2019 season, PFF itself does not even rank it as the best season by a collegiate QB in the past 6 seasons even with its questionable findings that conflict with what a lot of people saw (wide open receivers everywhere on most plays).

Further, I challenge Burrow's so-called elite accuracy as well. In 2018, he completed just 57.8% of his passes. I am not buying a nearly 20% increase in his completion percentage as being that he just suddenly got that much better. Wide open receivers and playing for a team vastly superior to other teams made a huge difference. He will not have that benefit in the NFL--none of it.

Moreover, Burrow's physical limitations concerning his arm talent are obvious. Maybe he can overcome those limitations in the right system, but to suggest that he is some sort of special dynamic game changing force is, frankly, laughable. Almost every year this century a QB gets hyped as a dynamic game changing force. This century, not one of those #1 overall QBs has lived up to that billing. Burrow will likely continue that trend.

I suspect the real Burrow will be a competent game manager type QB. He will be fine if he is not asked to do too much. He will not be a historically great player.

Honestly, I am delighted that teams like the Bungles are willing to look past players like Chase Young and Isaiah Simmons and draft players like Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. It gives us a chance that Simmons will be on the board at #6. And if Simmons is on the board at #6, it had better not take our front office more than 20 seconds to turn in the draft card selecting him.

[richpjr]

The numbers do back up the assertion that except for 2019 Joe Burrow was Joe Blow and it is pure horse manure to suggest to the contrary. Joe Burrow's red shirt junior 2018 stat line is as follows: 219-379, 57.8% completion percentage, 2894 yards, 7.6 YPA, 16 TDs, 5 INTs, 133.2 QB rating. Those are the numbers and that was after he transferred after failing to beat out Haskins at Ohio State, who has been entirely mediocre in the NFL so far.

Moreover, your cherry picked quote from PFF's undisclosed analysis is worthless. Nevermind that PFF does not disclose its formula, methodology, complete data or analysis in the article which makes your argument nothing more than "PFF said so", the conclusion of the article itself does not support the notion that Burrow was some sort of all time legendary QB in 2019. At the end of the day, in an analysis that PFF states has only been performed since 2014, Burrow managed to post the third best season behind Mayfield in 2017 and Murray in 2018, two QBs who also have been entirely mediocre so far in the NFL. And this was with an absolutely loaded team. Got it.

Even still, while their take on top collegiate QB seasons pretty much shows us that a good college season by a QB does not mean that QB will be a great QB in the NFL, I still would like to know what on earth they were looking at when they decided that Burrow had even that good of a season in 2019. How did they score the play when Burrow paused to figure out which of many open receivers to pass the ball to, shifted his feet as token pressure arrived and then lofted a flutter ball to a wide open receiver for a reception before the late arriving defender could get to the flutter ball. Whatever they scored that play, that play happened a whole bunch of times.

That play did not impress me very much because I do not think that any of that will translate very well to the NFL.

I continue to believe that Burrow's best traits are intelligence and vision, but that his lack of arm strength will hurt him at the NFL level. I see a game manager, do not turn the ball over type of QB and those QBs can be just fine in the NFL, but I do not see Burrow as any sort of dynamic game changing force at all. I think in the NFL Burrow will be the kind of QB that will not lose games for his team, but I do not see him as the kind of QB that will go out and make plays consistently to win them.

I copied only a part of that "worthless" analysis to make the point about your take that Burrows only completed a high number of passes this year because his receivers are running free. Just because PFF doesn't release what criteria they use doesn't mean it isn't true. My eye test tells me the same thing that their analysis does - he is extraordinarily accurate and can complete passes in a very tight window, which is crucial for success at the NFL level. Literally the only knock that I, along with just about everyone else who has watched him outside of you, is that his arm strength is not elite. I expect him to have much more success than you do. Time will tell.

And yet the numbers simply don't back up this assertion:

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-joe-burrow-best-college-qb-of-the-pff-era

The numbers do back up the assertion that except for 2019 Joe Burrow was Joe Blow and it is pure horse manure to suggest to the contrary. Joe Burrow's red shirt junior 2018 stat line is as follows: 219-379, 57.8% completion percentage, 2894 yards, 7.6 YPA, 16 TDs, 5 INTs, 133.2 QB rating. Those are the numbers and that was after he transferred after failing to beat out Haskins at Ohio State, who has been entirely mediocre in the NFL so far.

Moreover, your cherry picked quote from PFF's undisclosed analysis is worthless. Nevermind that PFF does not disclose its formula, methodology, complete data or analysis in the article which makes your argument nothing more than "PFF said so", the conclusion of the article itself does not support the notion that Burrow was some sort of all time legendary QB in 2019. At the end of the day, in an analysis that PFF states has only been performed since 2014, Burrow managed to post the third best season behind Mayfield in 2017 and Murray in 2018, two QBs who also have been entirely mediocre so far in the NFL. And this was with an absolutely loaded team. Got it.

Even still, while their take on top collegiate QB seasons pretty much shows us that a good college season by a QB does not mean that QB will be a great QB in the NFL, I still would like to know what on earth they were looking at when they decided that Burrow had even that good of a season in 2019. How did they score the play when Burrow paused to figure out which of many open receivers to pass the ball to, shifted his feet as token pressure arrived and then lofted a flutter ball to a wide open receiver for a reception before the late arriving defender could get to the flutter ball. Whatever they scored that play, that play happened a whole bunch of times.

That play did not impress me very much because I do not think that any of that will translate very well to the NFL.

I continue to believe that Burrow's best traits are intelligence and vision, but that his lack of arm strength will hurt him at the NFL level. I see a game manager, do not turn the ball over type of QB and those QBs can be just fine in the NFL, but I do not see Burrow as any sort of dynamic game changing force at all. I think in the NFL Burrow will be the kind of QB that will not lose games for his team, but I do not see him as the kind of QB that will go out and make plays consistently to win them.