Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[Velo]

Fake production? Whats wrong with a Play action pass or any of those things? They are designed for a reason. What is the agenda here anyways? I think people are finding more ways to over analyze the game.

I didn't understand what this stat was supposed to be about either. What's the point? Glad I'm not the only one. I agree, these guys are beginning to get annoying analyzing the game to death.

[equivocation]

I take mild exception to the article's contention-- stated by Rivers, and echoed by the writer-- that the Chargers "nailed that pick".

Herbert FELL to the Chargers. Herb was the last of the Top 3 QBs to be selected, after Burrow at #1, and Tua at #5.

Now... if the guy is saying that the Bolts "nailed" the pick because Telesco didn't select Jordan Love instead of Herb?!? That's stupid to think that Jordan Love was even a consideration at #6 for the Bolts.

The Chargers NEEDED a quarterback, and they were almost without any question going to take one of those Top 3 QBs at #6, unless they were all off the board by then.

It turned out that Telesco didn't have to trade up to get a Top 3 QB. One fell to him. We're all unspeakably lucky that it was Herb that fell, not Tua.

But there's some legitimacy to saying that Telesco deserves credit for not panicking, and losing draft capital unnecessarily in a trade-up. He deserves acknowledgment there. However... knowing the QB that Herb is developing into, if Telesco HAD traded up to ensure getting him? It would, now, look like an absolute GENIUS move, because it ensured that the Chargers got a guy who's accomplished the best two-year start of ANY NFL quarterback, EVER.

But "nailing the pick". I don't think so. I *DO* think we can say that Miami FAILED to nail the pick.

This board would have taken Simmons by like a 90%-10% margin. The pick was universally panned by the media.

Stop trivializing this shit. They made the correct call, and it was not an easy call going by why everyone else thought at the time.

[dmac_bolt]

I take mild exception to the article's contention-- stated by Rivers, and echoed by the writer-- that the Chargers "nailed that pick".

Herbert FELL to the Chargers. Herb was the last of the Top 3 QBs to be selected, after Burrow at #1, and Tua at #5.

Now... if the guy is saying that the Bolts "nailed" the pick because Telesco didn't select Jordan Love instead of Herb?!? That's stupid to think that Jordan Love was even a consideration at #6 for the Bolts.

The Chargers NEEDED a quarterback, and they were almost without any question going to take one of those Top 3 QBs at #6, unless they were all off the board by then.

It turned out that Telesco didn't have to trade up to get a Top 3 QB. One fell to him. We're all unspeakably lucky that it was Herb that fell, not Tua.

But there's some legitimacy to saying that Telesco deserves credit for not panicking, and losing draft capital unnecessarily in a trade-up. He deserves acknowledgment there. However... knowing the QB that Herb is developing into, if Telesco HAD traded up to ensure getting him? It would, now, look like an absolute GENIUS move, because it ensured that the Chargers got a guy who's accomplished the best two-year start of ANY NFL quarterback, EVER.

But "nailing the pick". I don't think so. I *DO* think we can say that Miami FAILED to nail the pick.

2/3 of this board didn’t want the Chargers to take him even after Burrow and Tua were gone. 3/4? Make it 4 of every 5 here wanted TT to not pick Herbie. So yeah, disagree - they nailed the pick

[dmac_bolt]

This is the first time I've heard Phil Rivers talk about Herbert.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10040882-philip-rivers-says-chargers-nailed-it-with-justin-herbert-hopes-qb-plays-16-years

He is right, it's very rare for a team to go from a Brett Favre to an Aaron Rodgers seamlessly. But the Chargers appear to have done it with Rivers to Herbert (with one start by Taylor).

Rivers was good, likely HOF good, but he was neither Favre nor Rogers. Herbert will be. JH will be the best QB in franchise history and challenge for GOAT. Yeah, i went there

[Boltjolt]

Rivers was good, likely HOF good, but he was neither Favre nor Rogers. Herbert will be. JH will be the best QB in franchise history and challenge for GOAT. Yeah, i went there

Not holding my breath on the GOAT. That's a tall order and he alone won't do it. He has bad ownership to contend with for one.

[dmac_bolt]

I didn't understand what this stat was supposed to be about either. What's the point? Glad I'm not the only one. I agree, these guys are beginning to get annoying analyzing the game to death.

Add me to your club. I could see not counting option or wildcat plays, not many of those QBs run any RPO. but not including PA makes no sense to me. Thats bread and butter … any QB that can’t effectively pass out of play action is going to severely impair his offense.

[Boltjolt]

Production from PA/screens/RPO often comes from sources other than the QB. The production still counts in game, of course, but it's a poor way to evaluate QBs.

This is why the Rams traded for Stafford and got rid of Goff. Goff could run their PA just fine, but when he had to make a play from the pocket in pure passing situations lacked the skill to do so.

Well again I'm going to say many other factors play into this. Not sure that graph is worth a shit. Like many PFF stats aren't.
Top half of that list is winning record teams. And then the rest. Stafford did nothing special in Detroit and suddenly he is this hot top QB in the league. Best in the league? He just has a better team and coaches around him.

I'm sure Goff in his time with LA was higher on this list than he was here in Detroit as well. He did after all get them to a SB.....not being able to throw as you say with nearly 4700 yards under McVey. I mean we know Goff is better than Trevor Simien who was well ahead of him on that list.

We know Lamar can't throw. Wonder how he would do in Detroit? Probably be further down where he already is.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

2/3 of this board didn’t want the Chargers to take him even after Burrow and Tua were gone. 3/4? Make it 4 of every 5 here wanted TT to not pick Herbie. So yeah, disagree - they nailed the pick

Telesco has confirmed in interviews that he would have taken ANY of the three QBs, and that the only scenario in which he WOULDN'T have selected one of them is if they were all off the board.

And he took the QB who fell to him. He was passive in acquiring Herbert, whereas he actively pursued Kenneth Murray by trading up.

Was Herb a great draft pick? Hell, yes!

Did Telesco "nail the pick"? There wasn't a better pick to be made, so he made the best pick possible. If he was determined to get a QB-- and he was-- Herb was the no-brainer pick. The pick wasn't made out of shrewdness and brilliance. Telesco took the leftovers, and it turns out the leftovers were better than some of the fresh stuff.

I guess I don't see the evidence that Telesco displayed any skill here. He waited, and then took what was left.

Now, let's say the Dolphins has selected Herb, leaving Tua for the Chargers.

It would have involved EXACTLY the same skill level on Telesco's part to select Tua under those circumstances. But would anyone now be saying Telesco "nailed the pick" for selecting Tua? IMO, Telesco was more lucky than good in this matter. He got dealt a favorable hand, and didn't misplay it. To me, that's the sort of move that proves someone's competent, not brilliant.

Y'all are welcome to disagree. Not sure why this seems to hit such a nerve for some people.

[Boltjolt]

Telesco has confirmed in interviews that he would have taken ANY of the three QBs, and that the only scenario in which he WOULDN'T have selected one of them is if they were all off the board.

And he took the QB who fell to him. He was passive in acquiring Herbert, whereas he actively pursued Kenneth Murray by trading up.

Was Herb a great draft pick? Hell, yes!

Did Telesco "nail the pick"? There wasn't a better pick to be made, so he made the best pick possible. If he was determined to get a QB-- and he was-- Herb was the no-brainer pick. The pick wasn't made out of shrewdness and brilliance. Telesco took the leftovers, and it turns out the leftovers were better than some of the fresh stuff.

I guess I don't see the evidence that Telesco displayed any skill here. He waited, and then took what was left.

Now, let's say the Dolphins has selected Herb, leaving Tua for the Chargers.

It would have involved EXACTLY the same skill level on Telesco's part to select Tua under those circumstances. But would anyone now be saying Telesco "nailed the pick" for selecting Tua? IMO, Telesco was more lucky than good in this matter. He got dealt a favorable hand, and didn't misplay it. To me, that's the sort of move that proves someone's competent, not brilliant.

Y'all are welcome to disagree. Not sure why this seems to hit such a nerve for some people.

To me it's irelevent is all. Teams get lucky all the time by others passing on players. Picking Herbert was a no brainer, sure. At the time I'd rather have had Burrow but wasn't wiling to give up 4 picks to move up to do that. I didn't really want Tua as I've said a hundred times and probably would of passed and picked Simmon's and went to get Hurts.

Thing is, this hit your nerve a bit as you said you took a mild exception to Rivers saying they nailed the pick. It is what it is. Tua still has time to be better and he may be but he will never be Herbert is all and he will have that injury history as well. Herbert was just good right away, Tua wasn't which is normal for Rookie QBs.

We have never had a QB come in as a rookie and be Good right away. It's rare. Obviously Luck was but there weren't many. Brady wasn't, Lawrence wasn't, Mahomes didn't start, Rodgers sat three years, Ben was OK but had a great team. Eli wasn't., etc.

[equivocation]

*shrug* look at what happens to PA dependent QBs when they get behind. The top 7 or so guys on that list can consistently engineer comebacks. The rest can't.

I'm sorry y'all don't understand scheme dependencies.

Jared Goff is a mediocre at best QB who put up big numbers because of the system he was in. The system improves his stats, but doesn't improve his talent. This isn't rocket surgery, we have these types of discussions all the time.

[equivocation]

Of drafting Herbert was a no-brainer, what does that say about all the people who hated the pick?

It wasn't a no brainer. Just stop.

[Boltjolt]

*shrug* look at what happens to PA dependent QBs when they get behind. The top 7 or so guys on that list can consistently engineer comebacks. The rest can't.

I'm sorry y'all don't understand scheme dependencies.

Jared Goff is a mediocre at best QB who put up big numbers because of the system he was in. The system improves his stats, but doesn't improve his talent. This isn't rocket surgery, we have these types of discussions all the time.

Lol.., ok.. ... Besides Ben's age, what's his excuse for being down so low? He didn't change schemes and had good weapons. How about Matt Ryan? Atlanta sucked. Bad OL, lost one of his WRs all year, and so go Ryan's stats. It ain't rocket science.
Bridgewater is 8th lol.
Idk man, I just think some stats are useless.

Russel Wilson isn't capable of mounting a comeback who is out of your range at 17 and behind Simien? Tannehill 18 in the same scheme that saved his career. Carr 16. Not capable of comebacks? Carr has 29 comebacks since 2015.
Hard to believe I know. I was looking to see if they had 29 wins since then.... and he had with many coaching changes to boot.