Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[Steve]

Fake production? Whats wrong with a Play action pass or any of those things? They are designed for a reason. What is the agenda here anyways? I think people are finding more ways to over analyze the game.

There is nothing wrong with it, except that they are situational plays. They are just trying to indicate who is the best pocket passers. Teams that do a lot of screens' RPO's and PA typcially are successful because they have a really good running game. But put them in a situation where they are behind, or just in a lot of obvious passing situations, then the screens, PA and RPO's aren't going to be very effective.

The problem I have with EPA is it doesn't always do a good job of describing context, which is the whole point of it. For a given down, distance and situation, it gives positive for QB who get more than what they need a higher grade. But you can't tell exactly what form it takes. For example, say Stafford consistently takes his team down the field and he converts bunch of 3rd and shorts and his team gets a couple of field goals. He gets numerous small additions to his EPA, because he convert the plays (got more than he needed) and it adds up. Meanwhile, our offense is somewhat inconsistent, but Herbert will have big 2nd and 4th qtrs, and will make a single big play here or there, even if it leads to (scores) TD's. It's my impression that EPA knocks him down because of the lack of consistency, even though the offense flows through him, and is tied to his production.

And there are still a lot of times when teams are using PA to take their shots and trying to score points. You have been running the ball successfully, the QB is not reading the whole field, but it is still one of the best ways to get a WR behind the D when they all come charging up to stop the RB and then the QB throws over the whole D.

[dmac_bolt]

Of drafting Herbert was a no-brainer, what does that say about all the people who hated the pick?

It wasn't a no brainer. Just stop.

Exactly. There was a LOT of room on the Herbert bus at TPB when picks were being announced. We only took up the first two rows of the bus, the next 10 rows were empty.

[dmac_bolt]

There is nothing wrong with it, except that they are situational plays. They are just trying to indicate who is the best pocket passers. Teams that do a lot of screens' RPO's and PA typcially are successful because they have a really good running game. But put them in a situation where they are behind, or just in a lot of obvious passing situations, then the screens, PA and RPO's aren't going to be very effective.

The problem I have with EPA is it doesn't always do a good job of describing context, which is the whole point of it. For a given down, distance and situation, it gives positive for QB who get more than what they need a higher grade. But you can't tell exactly what form it takes. For example, say Stafford consistently takes his team down the field and he converts bunch of 3rd and shorts and his team gets a couple of field goals. He gets numerous small additions to his EPA, because he convert the plays (got more than he needed) and it adds up. Meanwhile, our offense is somewhat inconsistent, but Herbert will have big 2nd and 4th qtrs, and will make a single big play here or there, even if it leads to (scores) TD's. It's my impression that EPA knocks him down because of the lack of consistency, even though the offense flows through him, and is tied to his production.

And there are still a lot of times when teams are using PA to take their shots and trying to score points. You have been running the ball successfully, the QB is not reading the whole field, but it is still one of the best ways to get a WR behind the D when they all come charging up to stop the RB and then the QB throws over the whole D.

But most PA passes are made from the pocket. Seems heavily influenced by the pass protection. Our offense was inconsistent but not because of Herbert. Assigning a negative score to Herbert because the OL couldn’t run block and couldn’t protect the right side seems like a misdirected stat.

[Boltjolt]

There is nothing wrong with it, except that they are situational plays. They are just trying to indicate who is the best pocket passers. Teams that do a lot of screens' RPO's and PA typcially are successful because they have a really good running game. But put them in a situation where they are behind, or just in a lot of obvious passing situations, then the screens, PA and RPO's aren't going to be very effective.

The problem I have with EPA is it doesn't always do a good job of describing context, which is the whole point of it. For a given down, distance and situation, it gives positive for QB who get more than what they need a higher grade. But you can't tell exactly what form it takes. For example, say Stafford consistently takes his team down the field and he converts bunch of 3rd and shorts and his team gets a couple of field goals. He gets numerous small additions to his EPA, because he convert the plays (got more than he needed) and it adds up. Meanwhile, our offense is somewhat inconsistent, but Herbert will have big 2nd and 4th qtrs, and will make a single big play here or there, even if it leads to (scores) TD's. It's my impression that EPA knocks him down because of the lack of consistency, even though the offense flows through him, and is tied to his production.

And there are still a lot of times when teams are using PA to take their shots and trying to score points. You have been running the ball successfully, the QB is not reading the whole field, but it is still one of the best ways to get a WR behind the D when they all come charging up to stop the RB and then the QB throws over the whole D.

I got the jist of what they were trying to say but it just looks like a PFF stat that which many of are useless a d don't account for many other factors AKA, over analyzing the game.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Of drafting Herbert was a no-brainer, what does that say about all the people who hated the pick?

It wasn't a no brainer. Just stop.

Take a couple of deep breaths, please, and try to hear these comments you're objecting to in the broader context.

The pick absolutely WAS a no-brainer, given the fact that Telesco had already made the decision, pre-draft, to go QB at #6, if one of the Top 3 were there.

If you're picking QB at #6, and Burrow and Tua are off the board, then Herbert IS, in fact, the no-brainer choice, Jordan Love/Jalen Hurts zealots excepted..

Telesco had already reduced his parameters to making QB first priority, with players at other positions as fallbacks, should all of the Top 3 be gone by #6.

So Herbert wasn't the no-brainer pick for forum members, as you point out. But he was for Telesco, because T.T. wasn't looking for ANYthing but QB, if any of the Top 3 were there to take.

Rivers was being gracious (and good for him) when he said the Chargers nailed the pick. He was saying something encouraging and supportive of his former team. In my opinion, the writer then echoed Rivers's statement as if it had been coming from the place of football analysis, instead of from a place of being a gracious former player. You know Rivers. He's not going to say something negative in these circumstances.

[equivocation]

Take a couple of deep breaths, please, and try to hear these comments you're objecting to in the broader context.

The pick absolutely WAS a no-brainer, given the fact that Telesco had already made the decision, pre-draft, to go QB at #6, if one of the Top 3 were there.

If you're picking QB at #6, and Burrow and Tua are off the board, then Herbert IS, in fact, the no-brainer choice, Jordan Love/Jalen Hurts zealots excepted..

Telesco had already reduced his parameters to making QB first priority, with players at other positions as fallbacks, should all of the Top 3 be gone by #6.

So Herbert wasn't the no-brainer pick for forum members, as you point out. But he was for Telesco, because T.T. wasn't looking for ANYthing but QB, if any of the Top 3 were there to take.

Rivers was being gracious (and good for him) when he said the Chargers nailed the pick. He was saying something encouraging and supportive of his former team. In my opinion, the writer then echoed Rivers's statement as if it had been coming from the place of football analysis, instead of from a place of being a gracious former player. You know Rivers. He's not going to say something negative in these circumstances.

That decision was entirely dependent on him evaluating Herbert to be worth a top 6 pick. If he evaluated him to NOT be worth a top cluster pick (like most of this board and most pundits) he would have taken someone else as the top 2 QBs were gone and tried to get Hurts or someone later. Your reasoning is exactly backwards. You're trying to downgrade the decision for being correct, which is really, really odd.

Insteaf of listening to others he went with their own evaluation and made the right call. That's not a no-brainer.

[equivocation]

Lol.., ok.. ... Besides Ben's age, what's his excuse for being down so low? He didn't change schemes and had good weapons. How about Matt Ryan? Atlanta sucked. Bad OL, lost one of his WRs all year, and so go Ryan's stats. It ain't rocket science.
Bridgewater is 8th lol.
Idk man, I just think some stats are useless.

Russel Wilson isn't capable of mounting a comeback who is out of your range at 17 and behind Simien? Tannehill 18 in the same scheme that saved his career. Carr 16. Not capable of comebacks? Carr has 29 comebacks since 2015.
Hard to believe I know. I was looking to see if they had 29 wins since then.... and he had with many coaching changes to boot.

Ben was horrible last year. It was a fucking comedy watching him try to pass.

Wilson was poor. Ryan was poor.

Carr is a bit of an outlier but those happen in data and he is somewhat overrated.

Data is never perfect, but if used correctly is useful. Herbert is a great pocket passer in his 2nd year. That's all I'm saying.

[equivocation]

[equivocation]

I got the jist of what they were trying to say but it just looks like a PFF stat that which many of are useless a d don't account for many other factors AKA, over analyzing the game.

EPA has nothing to do with PFF...


???

[Boltjolt]

EPA has nothing to do with PFF...


???

But useless stats are useless stats. Every QB is a better picker passer with a decent OL. And some like Lamar are not as good and some just aren't good enough QBs .

[equivocation]

But useless stats are useless stats. Every QB is a better picker passer with a decent OL. And some like Lamar are not as good and some just aren't good enough QBs .

Sure. Lets just throw out all stats and give everyone a participation trophy. Or we just evaluate by our "gut feeling" with no rigor. Both much better approaches.

[equivocation]

There is nothing wrong with it, except that they are situational plays. They are just trying to indicate who is the best pocket passers. Teams that do a lot of screens' RPO's and PA typcially are successful because they have a really good running game. But put them in a situation where they are behind, or just in a lot of obvious passing situations, then the screens, PA and RPO's aren't going to be very effective.

The problem I have with EPA is it doesn't always do a good job of describing context, which is the whole point of it. For a given down, distance and situation, it gives positive for QB who get more than what they need a higher grade. But you can't tell exactly what form it takes. For example, say Stafford consistently takes his team down the field and he converts bunch of 3rd and shorts and his team gets a couple of field goals. He gets numerous small additions to his EPA, because he convert the plays (got more than he needed) and it adds up. Meanwhile, our offense is somewhat inconsistent, but Herbert will have big 2nd and 4th qtrs, and will make a single big play here or there, even if it leads to (scores) TD's. It's my impression that EPA knocks him down because of the lack of consistency, even though the offense flows through him, and is tied to his production.

And there are still a lot of times when teams are using PA to take their shots and trying to score points. You have been running the ball successfully, the QB is not reading the whole field, but it is still one of the best ways to get a WR behind the D when they all come charging up to stop the RB and then the QB throws over the whole D.

FYI EPA should add to very near actual points by the end of the game. It's just trying to assign those points to particular plays and players. For example a 4th and goal conversion should give about 6 total epa. From an EPA/play perspective chunk plays are actually better than methodocal plays just because fewer plays to spread points over.