The Melvin Gordon Saga - Holdout Over

[Blue Thunder]

Agree...Gordon is really being selfish here...failing to honor his contract and potentially letting his teammates down in a year when TT finally, finally looks like he has put the pieces together for a strong SB run...and then Gordie pulls this holdout crap....and by the way, u really think MG3 will be welcomed with open arms week 10? Possible, but sounds to me more like a locker room cancer...I can easily see someone like Derwin or KA tell Gordon something like, "nice of you to join us...we've been working our tails off all season, and you just kicking back by the poolside all during TC, the preseason and the first 9 weeks..." It could get ugly...

This is exactly why I feel like we should trade him before training camp even begins. We don't need the negativity of his situation hanging over the team at all. If he wants to play things this way, we cut bait now, trade him to the highest bidder, and start fresh from the get go.

[Sgt. Pepper]

I have been watching the few clips of him I can find, and he is starting to really peak my interest.

In general, I think too many people get excited about big backs for nothing. Sure, it's great when you get a John Riggins/Michael Turner type guy. But too often you end up with the Ron Dayne or Jermaine Fazande, a big guy who lumbers into the line but lacks the speed, acceleration of burst to take advantage of their power. When I first saw Cox, I thought he was more of a Dayne or Fazande, a big guy who comes to a halt when he tries to cut. And you do see a lot of that with him in his highlights.

There are plays when he puts his foot into the ground and gets upfield. When he does that, he has the speed and power to be very, very tough to bring down.

It will be interesting to see how he plays come preseason. If he can get to the point where he doesn't dance, and he keeps his speed through his cuts, then he could be a great back for us. He is a better receiver than a lot of college guys. He needs to prove himself vs pro pass rusher in pass protection, but every rookie needs to do that. But if we can get a 4-minute offense type of back who has a rare combination of speed and power, and especially if we can get him on the field after JJ and Ekler have worn down defenders, then it could make finishing games offensively a lot easier. A big powerful guy who can break tackles on tired defenders and then set some play action, and short dump passes can really either break the other team, or make it impossible for them to get our offense off the field.

The key to being successful with a player like this is not asking him to do what he is not good at doing, and using him in situations where his skill-set works best. If it is going to be running back by committee, this should work well. He will only be needed in those situations. A big added bonus is that Anthony Lynn should know exactly how to use his running backs. He could be an effective closer if he sits out most of the game and comes in late in 4th quarters with fresh legs. If he breaks through to the second level with his speed and size he will be hard to bring down. It also sounds like he is the type of short-yardage back the team has been missing for a while. Someone who can move the pile 2 yards when you need a yard. Or bulldoze his way into the endzone from inside the two yard line.

ADDENDUM: OK, I watched a bit of film on him. I see Jerome Bettis. :woot:

[Steve]

This is exactly why I feel like we should trade him before training camp even begins. We don't need the negativity of his situation hanging over the team at all. If he wants to play things this way, we cut bait now, trade him to the highest bidder, and start fresh from the get go.

At this point, Gordon is worth as much as he is going to be worth.

Historically, there are not a lot of cases where teams have a start player hold out and have it work out well (for either side). It usually backfires and hurts both parties. The teams miss the player and have the stigma of the missing player hanging over them, and then the player is usually not nearly as good a fit with the new team and/or is past their prime.

It would also give Gordon more time to pick up a new offense, which is actually a key to him being successful with his new team.

It does hurt the Chargers short term, but by saving the cap space and getting some compensation, we would come out better in the long term.

[Steve]

The key to being successful with a player like this is not asking him to do what he is not good at doing, and using him in situations where his skill-set works best. If it is going to be running back by committee, this should work well. He will only be needed in those situations. A big added bonus is that Anthony Lynn should know exactly how to use his running backs. He could be an effective closer if he sits out most of the game and comes in late in 4th quarters with fresh legs. If he breaks through to the second level with his speed and size he will be hard to bring down. It also sounds like he is the type of short-yardage back the team has been missing for a while. Someone who can move the pile 2 yards when you need a yard. Or bulldoze his way into the endzone from inside the two yard line.

ADDENDUM: OK, I watched a bit of film on him. I see Jerome Bettis. :woot:

Totally agree on the keeping his role more limited. Yeah, maybe he is a home run hit in the making, but I think teams are better off building the rookies confidence. Plus, it is not like we don't have other players like DN, JJ and Ekeler who have earned some extra playing time.

I am trying not to compare him to Bettis. Bettis is a rare breed. Not too many guys have his size and feet. plus Bettis was a heck of a lot bigger.

Cox also flashes some as a receiver, which would make a nice change in the 4/5-minute O. Get the ball to a runner in the open field, tell him not to go out of bounds, and just keep the clock moving. Even if it is just a dumpoff into space, it puts him into space against a LB or a single DB and tired guys have a hard time bringing big guys down.

I suspect you may be right about his short yardage running, but with so few clips of him, it's hard to say at this point.

[Topcat]

I agree, he is worth a second contact. Just not in the 13-15 mil a year range. If he will be reasonable and accept he has had one 1,000 season in four years,... Which certainly is because of being injured and accept what that contract is worth, then cool. Resign him. If he thinks he should get Gurley money, C-ya.

That's a mighty big "if"...

[JupiterBolt]

I really like Melvin Gordon ( follow him on IG), but if I were management, I'd call his bluff and trade him. I would just make sure I got something valuable in return!

[Topcat]

Lets say we caved and paid him his 13M a year. And Rivers gets 35. Are there any other QB/RB combos out there making almost 50M a year?

I think it's a moot point. Even if we did find a couple of $50+ mil QB/RB combos, it wouldn't necessarily make it the right move for the Bolts...if the cap money isn't there, it's not there...

[jamrock]

Lets say we caved and paid him his 13M a year. And Rivers gets 35. Are there any other QB/RB combos out there making almost 50M a year?

Hes not worth $13m and Rivers isn't worth $35m

[Fleet]

I think it's a moot point. Even if we did find a couple of $50+ mil QB/RB combos, it wouldn't necessarily make it the right move for the Bolts...if the cap money isn't there, it's not there...

I was just genuinely curious. Looks like 2020 has Ryan/Freeman north of the 40+ range. Looks like the top 10 highest QB contracts all have RBs on rookie deals. And the top 10 highest RB contracts are on teams with QBs on rookie deals. Outside of Atlanta.

[jamrock]

Really disgree with most of this thread. When healthy last season Flash was on the highest level of RB play in the league. He is worth a second contract and the team wants to keep him. We haven't even gotten to anything like the team saying we are going to force him to honor his last year option and will not negotiate with him till he reports like the bull shit we had to deal with in the AJ era. I don't care if he's in training camp or not. I want them negotiating this deal and this going to the media is just negotiation. I want Flash to stay in lightning bolts. I think we are screwed with out him. We are not the patriots. Rivers has always needed a stud RB, this is not Ryan Mathews injury history

I agree. We need him. If we're not going to work this out then trade him for a player that replaces him. We don't need a draft pick. We are in win now mode

[Fleet]

Hes not worth $13m and Rivers isn't worth $35m

I think Rivers could command 33 a year. Id like the discount etc. But he may come in with Roth type numbers. I agree MG isnt worth that number. But i simply said if he got what he was demanding. Which i just read was 13-15? Thats crazy.

Im only pointing out that MG is most likely insane to think we would invest 45M a year in new money to our RB and QB. If we drafted a rookie QB high this year and we were planning on letting Rivers go i could see us giving Gordon his money. Not that much. But a big contract. I think he will get paid a lot of money by someone.

[Steve]

https://overthecap.com/thoughts-on-the-contract-impasse-between-melvin-gordon-and-the-chargers/

Read the bolded paragraph halfway down. I am not sure that is true, but if it is, it does change the dynamic somewhat.
Thoughts on the Contract Impasse Between Melvin Gordon and the Chargers

Posted on July 11, 2019 by Jason Fitzgerald
With NFL training camp just a few weeks away we begin the period where more and more players begin to open up about the potential of holding out if they are not offered a new contract. Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is the most recent on to state he will hold out and demand a trade if he does not receive a new contract.

Running back contracts are always controversial in large part because the position breaks down so much faster than others and that many would argue that it's the most easily replaceable position in the NFL. For the most part contracts have reflected those views for the last five or six years until there was an uptick in the market last year when Todd Gurley signed a four year contract extension worth $14.375 million a year and then David Johnson signed for three years at $13 million a season. Those two, along with Le'Veon Bell, make up the elite portion of the market. The next tier maxes out at $8.25 million a season and includes the names Devonta Freeman ($8.25M), LeSean McCoy ($8.01M), Jerick McKinnon($7.5M), and Lamar Miller($6.5M). The third tier is around $5 million and lower and that should not be a factor here.
Where does Gordon fit in those top two groupings? I'm not sure if he fits in any of them to be honest. From a statistical standpoint he is more in the Freeman camp and I could see the Chargers considering Gordon to be at that level or slightly lower in an offer. From the standpoint of where he was drafted and the fact that he has not been a disappointment he would probably argue he is closer to the top tier. His agent called the Chargers offer disrespectful but that could mean a number of things. $4 or $5 million is disrespectful, but something like $8.5 million is probably a fair start to bridging the gap between the top two tiers.

If the Chargers did in fact make a true lowball offer it probably indicates that they have no intention of keeping him long term. It is an understandable position. Of those names listed above Johnson had a terrible first year, McKinnon was hurt and is way down on his team's depth chart without ever taking a snap, Gurley may have a long term injury, Freeman has been hurt, and nobody gets excited about Miller. Basically McCoy is the only one to be a proven productive player during the body of his deal. This extends well beyond these few names. Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Ray Rice, DeMaro Murray, etc...The list goes on and on. Even players who did deliver high end seasons like an Arian Foster dealt with constant injuries. If the Chargers are in this camp they likely made a token offer with some reasonable injury protection knowing he would likely turn it down so they can at least say they tried.

If it is a fairer offer then the ball goes to Gordon's court as the $8M+ offer would indicate a willingness to at least be in a longer term relationship. Regardless of where Gordon was drafted the fact is he has never had a dynamic season like Johnson, Gurley, or Bell. He doesn't measure up to them as a receiver. He doesn't have the name value or cache of those players. My assumption is the Chargers also can not offer more than $11 million a season, which is what the team pays star wide receiver Keenan Allen. While re-signing Gordon would certainly show the locker room something positive, matching or surpassing the Allen contract would likely lead to another unhappy player looking for a new contract. That doesn't serve any purpose and Allen is the more important player to the team.

Turning down a good offer and going into free agency, even off a good year, is no guarantee of success. Unlike other positions where free agency leads to some absurd contracts running backs haven't really done anything special. Bell talked of $15 million a year or more and failed to surpass the Gurley deal and even Bell's big number had more to do with a franchise just desperate to make some noise than a team really wanting him. McKinnon stunned everyone, but that was under $8 million a year. Murray, who was a rushing leader, could not top $8 million as a free agent. Most often the best offer comes from the original team. As far as a holdout goes I don't see a risk for either side. The Chargers could fine Gordon if he holds out but teams tend to waive those fines if everyone gets back on the same page before the regular season begins. Gordon does not need an accrued season towards free agency so he can stay out if he wants and not jeopardize his free agent status (this is different than a player with just three years in the NFL and holding out which would jeopardize his free agency). It is doubtful that a contract impasse would go into the regular season. Gordon is set to make $5.605 million this season, which is the second largest number of his career (as a rookie he made nearly $6.5 million). His salary ranks 6^th in the NFL this season. Every week he misses he would lose 1/17^th of that and that is not something that will be not be forgiven. If he misses the entire season his contract tolls and he remains on the Chargers and loses out on free agency. The biggest risk for the Chargers is Gordon not being in football condition, which has happened with holdouts in the past, but with a contract on the line in 2020 odds are he would stay in great shape. If no deal is reached both the franchise and transition tag would be options next year. We have those estimated at $12.6 and $10.3 million respectively next year. Gordon's side should know from the initial offer if the tags are in play or not next year. My guess is if the sides really want a deal done they would meet around $10 million a season. If not Gordon will likely be a Charger at the start of the season and playing by week 1 with an eye on free agency the following season.